Forecast Update:
HOW LONG WILL THE 4TH WAVE BURN?

NEW: December 1 Forecast and Analysis



Archived Analysis & Commentary COVID Dashboard

Key Take Aways

  1. The original forecast (Briggs-3 November 2020) predicted an end of Pandemic in Q3 2021. The US achieved that level briefly for the vaccinated. However, The Briggs-3 model correctly identified 4th Wave among unvaccinated, which is prolonging the pandemic.
  2. The mid-may 2021 CDC masking guidance (Fully Vaccinated people can remove masks when in public, but those unvaccinated should continue to wear masks) was not followed by many of the unvaccinated, resulting in the 4th Wave. At the same time, the more infectious Delta Variant accelerated infection rates and appears to be producing more fatal outcomes for those infected.
  3. The January 15th, 2021 Briggs-3 Scenario was based on the emergence of more dangerous variant, including Delta. The Forecast predicted 780,000 reported COVID-19 deaths by the end of 2021. With Delta's dominance by the end of July, combined with deadly behavior of the unvaccinated along with conservative politicaian's actions, as well as conservative judge rulings against vaccinate or test policy, the US is now trending about 10% above the "Worst Case" scenario.
  4. Businesses should plan that most of the US will be through the pandemic stage by end of 2021, but states and counties with low vaccination rates will see continued pandemic level deaths into 2022. A shift to endemic COVID-19 will see deaths decline from pandemic levels to rates similar to a bad year of the Flu. Variants like Omicron could upend this forecast if re-infections among unvaccinated are as deadly as initial infections.
  5. The pandemic shifted purchases from services to goods, putting pressure on supply chains, which will persist. The pandemic also taught people to buy and interact differently. E-commerce, curbside pick-up and other new habits will become expected conveniences.

Archived Analysis

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More Analysis & Commentary

Government data on the economy lags by a month to a quarter — sometimes a year. Decision makers need to know where the consumer economy is going (not just where it has been). Here are the February 2020 Recommendations.

Get Infections Below 1 in 1,000

We've got to #StayHome and social distance until we are below 1 in 1,000 active infections. If we don't we are increasing risk of spread and thereby contributing to the loss of lives and livelihoods. To quote a Republican leader, Senator Lindsay Graham, "Try running an economy with major hospitals overflowing, doctors and nurses forced to stop treating some because they can’t help all, and every moment of gut-wrenching medical chaos being played out in our living rooms, on TV, on social media, and shown all around the world."

Modernize "Test, Trace, Contain"

When a country can't trace how someone got the virus, and it spreads so fast it becomes one of the top killers in a matter of weeks, the only option is to go medieval on the virus and shut things down and get below 20% per week growth rate. We have amazing technology. Let's use it as we emerge from lock-down to ensure we keep the virus at bay! Increase testing. Use your smartphone to opt into privacy secure tracing. Wear a mask. Avoid keep social distancing if you can. Help contain it by staying home if tracing shows you might have been exposed.

Coronavirus GI Bill & Help Those In Need

In January and February, the virus moved faster than we did. We lost our inability to test, trace and contain the virus. To regain the upper-hand required an unprecedented global behavior change that wrecked the economy. Tens of millions are out of work, and many service jobs will not come back for years. We need a Coronavirus GI Bill. Let anyone unemployed get on-line education or training for the jobs of the future. Pay people to upgrade their skill sets. If you can, take a family in need under your wing. Support your local food bank.

Forecasts to Aid Reinvestment

Governments and Businesses have never seen this dramatic of a change in consumer behaviors. Government data lags by weeks, sometimes months making it difficult to make sound business decisions. This paralyzes businesses, and slows economic recovery. My friends in Market Research are in a unique position to help. Join me in working with ESOMAR, The ARF and leading research firms to pool our survey and sales data to make consensus sector forecasts for where consumer spending is heading. It will help businesses and policy makers to make better decisions faster.

COVID-19 Analysis

  • COVID-19: THe Math of Why Herd Immunity Isn't Viable in 2020
  • COVID19: Good News + Number To Track
  • COVID-19: THe Math of Why Herd Immunity Isn't Viable in 2020
  • COVID-19: THe Math of Why Herd Immunity Isn't Viable in 2020
  • COVID-19: THe Math of Why Herd Immunity Isn't Viable in 2020
  • COVID-19: THe Math of Why Herd Immunity Isn't Viable in 2020
  • COVID-19: THe Math of Why Herd Immunity Isn't Viable in 2020
  • COVID-19: THe Math of Why Herd Immunity Isn't Viable in 2020
  • COVID-19: THe Math of Why Herd Immunity Isn't Viable in 2020
  • COVID-19: THe Math of Why Herd Immunity Isn't Viable in 2020
  • COVID-19: THe Math of Why Herd Immunity Isn't Viable in 2020
  • COVID-19: THe Math of Why Herd Immunity Isn't Viable in 2020

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The views expressed on this site are my own. Copyright © 2020 Rex Briggs. All Rights Reserved.